The Limits of Predictability

by : Aria Ratmandanu 

      The media cast about for the proximate causes of life's windfalls and disasters. A little-known truth: Every aspect of the world is fundamentally unpredictable. Computer scientists have long since proved this. 

    How so ? To predict an event is to know a shortcut for foreseeing the outcome. A simple counting argument shows that there aren't enough shortcuts to go around. Therefore most processes aren't predictable. A deeper argument plays on the fact that if you could predict your actions, you could deliberately violate your predictions, which means the predictions were wrong after all. 

    We often suppose that unpredictability is caused by random inputs from lowdown quantum foam. But chaos theory and computer science tell us that non random systems produce surprises on their own. The unexpected tornado, the cartoon safe that lands on Uncle George, the winning pull on a slot machine-odd things pop out of a computation. The world can simultaneously be deterministic and unpredictable. 

     In the physical world, the only way to learn tomorrow's weather in detail is to wait twenty-four hours and see, even if nothing random at all. The universe is computing tomorrow's weather a rapidly and as efficiently as possible; any smaller model is inaccurate, and the smallest error is amplified into large effects. 

      At a personal level, even if the world is as deterministic as  computer program, you still can't predict what you're going to do. This is because your prediction method would involve a mental simulation of you that produces its results slower than you do. You can't think faster than you think. You can't stand on your own shoulders.

     It's a waste to chase the pipe dream of a magical tiny theory that allows us to make quick and detailed calculations about the future. We can't predict and we can't control. To accept this can be a source of liberation and inner peace. We're part of the unfolding world, surfing the chaotic waves.