The Uselessness of Certainty

by : Aria Ratmandanu 

       There is a widely held notion that does plenty of damage: the notion of "scientifically proved." Nearly an oxymoron. The very foundation of science is to keep the door open to doubt. Precisely because we keep questioning everything, especially our own premises, we are always ready to improve our knowledge. 

       Therefore a good scientist is never "certain." Lack of certainty is precisely what makes conclusions more reliable than the conclusions of those who are certain, because the good scientist will be ready to shift to a different point of view if better evidence or novel arguments emerge. Therefore certainty is not only something of no use but is also in fact damaging, if we value reliability. Failure to appreciate the value of uncertainty is at the origin of much silliness in our society. 

      Are we sure that the Earth is going to keep heating up if we don't do anything? Are we sure of the details of the current theory of evolution ? Are we sure that modern medicine is always a better strategy than traditional ones? No, we are not, in any of these cases. 

      But if, from this lack of certainty, we jump to the conviction that we had better not care about global heating, that there is no evolution and traditional medicine must be more effective than modern medicine well, we are simply stupid. 

      Still many people do make these inferences, because the lack of certainty is perceived as a sign of weakness instead of being what it is--the first source of our knowledge. Every knowledge, even the most solid, carries a margin of  uncertainty. (I am very sure name but what if I what my own is just hit my head and got momentarily confused?) Knowledge itself  is probabilistic in nature, a notion emphasized by some currents of philosophical pragmatism. 

    A better understanding of the meaning of "probability and especially realizing that we don't need (and never possess) "scientifically proved" reality but only a sufficiently high degree of probability in order to make decisions- would improve everybody's conceptual toolkit.