Uncertainty

by : Aria Ratmandanu 

     The notion of uncertainty is perhaps the least well understood concept in science. In the public parlance, uncertainty is a thing, implying a lack of rigor and predictability. The fact that global warming estimates are uncertain, for example, has been used by many to argue against any action at the present time. 

      In fact, however, uncertainty is a central component of what makes science successful. Being able to quantify uncertainty and incorporate it into models is what makes science quantitative rather than qualitative. Indeed, no number, no measurement, no observable in science is exact. Quoting numbers without attaching an uncertainty to them implies that they have, in essence, no meaning. 

    One of the things that makes uncertainty difficult for members of the public to appreciate is that the significance of uncertainty is relative. Take, for example, the distance between Earth and the sun: 1.49597 x 108 km., as measured at one point during the year. This seems relatively precise; after all, using six significant digits means I know the distance to an accuracy of one part in a million or so. 

     However, if the next digit is uncertain, that means the uncertainty in knowing the precise Earth-sun distance is larger than the distance between New Jersey and Chicago! Whether or not the quoted number is "precise" therefore depends on what I'm intending to do with it. If I care only about what minute the sun will rise tomorrow, then the number quoted here is fine. If I want to send a satellite to orbit just above the sun  however, then I would need to know distances more accurately. 

    This is why uncertainty is so important. Until we can quantify the uncertainty in our statements and our predictions, we have little idea of their power or significance. So, too, in the public sphere Public policy performed in the absence of understanding quantitative uncertainties, or even absent understanding the difficulty of obtaining reliable estimates of uncertainties, usually means bad public policy.